Kurdistan Portal

Analysts Watching Turkey-Iran Military Ties

Rudaw, 26.08.2011

Western analysts are watching Turkey’s relationship with Iran amid speculation that Ankara could be assisting Tehran in its fight against Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) rebels.

Howard Eissenstat, assistant professor of Middle Eastern history at St. Lawrence University in the US, believes the possibility of military cooperation between Turkey and Iran is a sign that Turkey has recently changed its policies toward the Kurds.

“Turkey seems to have decided to take a more aggressive stance against the Kurds in the aftermath of recent elections,” said Eissenstat, in reference to the country’s June parliamentary poll.

PJAK fights Iran for Kurdish rights and it has close ties with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and the United States. Iranian forces have launched massive operations against PJAK in recent weeks while Turkey claimed to have killed at least 100 PKK rebels since the group claimed responsibility for killing eight Turkish soldiers last week. Both groups are based in Iraqi Kurdistan’s mountainous border areas.

Recently Turkish media outlets closely tied to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), have reported that Turkey is planning to provide Iran with military assistance in its fight against PJAK.

Meanwhile, the Turkish army has reported deployed thousands of troops along a border with Iraqi Kurdistan and warned it will escalate its military operations against the PKK after Ramadan, which is expected to end next week.

Today’s Zaman reported that the US Ambassador to Turkey Francis J. Ricciardone met with Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag shortly after the Turkish soldiers were killed.

“We stand with Turkey in its fight against the PKK, which the United States has officially designated as a terrorist organization,” the US Embassy said in a statement after the attack.

According to the report, following his meeting with the US ambassador, Bozdag met with the Iranian ambassador to Ankara, Bahman Hassanipour.

In media interviews, Turkish officials have also revealed that Turkish fighter jets have used Iranian air space in their recent strikes against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan’s Qandil Mountains, where the PKK and PJAK are based.

Kalev Sepp, senior lecturer in defense analysis at the US Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, said he doesn’t think NATO would ever intervene in this crisis.

“I don’t think US or NATO would do anything to upset Turkey in this regard and I would say when states feel threatened, it is sometimes unrealistic to expect them to defer to normal NATO modalities or any other such restrictions,” he told Rudaw.

But Gareth Jenkins, a British expert on Kurdish-Turkish affairs, believes that closer ties between Turkey and Iran could cause concern in the west.

“There is a lot of support in the US for Turkey’s war against the PKK – and, of course, the US is supplying Turkey with a lot of intelligence on the PKK, including imaging of its assets in northern Iraq. But there will be a lot of unease if the Turkish military begins to cooperate with the Iranian military,” he said.

Syria: Turkey v. Iran
Will US stand up for freedom?

New York Post, Amir Taheri, 26.08.2011

Now in its sixth month, the Syrian uprising is developing into a power struggle between regional rivals Turkey and Iran.

After hesitating, Turkey appears to have determined that the regime of President Bashar al-Assad can no longer stand. In recent weeks, it has hosted conferences creating an interim Syrian “parliament” to prepare for a democratic transition. The Turks have also expressed support for new European Union sanctions on Syria, including an embargo on oil and gas imports.

Turkey has some leverage: As Syria’s largest investor, with investments of more than $25 billion, it has asked its business interests to hold off on new capital infusions.

Ankara wants Assad to step down in favor of a caretaker reform government, a position backed by several regional powers, notably Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies. The European Union, too, appears to want Turkey to take the lead on Syria.

Iran, however, stands dead set against the scheme. Over the last decade, Syria has become more of a client state than an ally.

Iran has kept Syria’s moribund economy alive with frequent cash injection and investments thought to be worth $20 billion, and also gives Syria “gifts,” including weapons worth $150 million a year. Tehran sources even claim that key members of Assad’s entourage are on the Iranian payroll.

During Bashar’s presidency, the Iranian presence has grown massively. Iran has opened 14 cultural offices across Syria, largely to propagate its brand of Shiite Islam. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also runs a “coordination office” in Damascus staffed by 400 military experts, and Syria is the only Mediterranean nation to offer the Iranian navy mooring rights.

The two countries have signed a pact committing them to “mutual defense.” Syria and North Korea are the only two countries with which Iran holds annual conferences of chiefs of staff.

Until last June, the Tehran leadership appeared to be of two minds about the Assad regime. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi suggested publicly that the regime might “need to listen to the Syrian people.” The foreign ministry obtained a “temporary halt” in travel to Syria.

But now “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei apparently has decided to throw Iran’s weight behind Assad. “We cannot allow plotters to succeed in Syria,” the daily Kayhan, which expresses Khamenei’s views, said in an editorial this week. “Those targeting Syria are, in fact, targeting the Islamic Revolution in Iran.” The paper also warned: “Turkey must know that the Islamic Republic will use all means at its disposal to ensure the failure of plots against Syria.”

The implicit threat is that Tehran would reactivate terrorist groups fighting Turkey. In fact, Tehran has already lifted a ban on movements by armed elements of the Kurdish Workers’ Party, which fights for an independent Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey and operates the mountainous area at the intersection of the borders of Turkey, Iran and Iraq.

Iran is trying hard to mobilize regional support for Assad, but its only ally on this is the Hezbollah-backed Lebanese government.

Iranian pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has so far failed to persuade Baghdad to back Assad -- and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has demanded that Assad leave office.

Several Arab countries are sitting on the fence because they believe that, without solid US support, the Turkish transition strategy lacks credibility.

Jordan would dearly like to see the back of Assad, whose father tried to assassinate King Hussein, the father of current King Abdullah. Iraq, too, having gotten rid of Ba’athist Saddam Hussein, would love to see Syria’s Ba’athist regime toppled. But both countries worry that prolonged turmoil in Syria could produce a flood of refugees that they couldn’t handle without support from major powers, especially America.

Egypt, emerging from its own despotic nightmare, would also welcome Assad’s fall. But it, too, worries about confusing signals from Washington.

The Arab Spring has provided a chance to reshape the Mideast. The question is who will benefit -- and how.

Turkey and Iran try to ignite Kurdish-Kurdish war, MP 

Aswat al-Iraq, 27.08.2011

BAGHDAD / Aswat Al-Iraq: Kurdish Alliance MP warned that Iran and Turkey are trying to ignite a Kurdish-Kurdish war through pressing Iraqi Kurds to fight against Turkish and Iranian opposition Kurds.
 
MP Mahmoud Othman told Aswat al-Iraq that "this matter is clear through the pressures put against Kurdish region government".
 
He called both countries to solve their Kurdish questions internally through dialogue and not resorting to violence.
 
"It seems that peaceful choice does not satisfy both countries and their continued desire to fight against PKK and PJAK parties, while both parties have their rights in freedom ", he added.

The Syria Game of Thrones: Turkey vs. Iran vs. the Saudis in Battle to Shape a Rebellion's Outcome

Posted by Tony Karo, Time Blog Global Spain, 16.11.2011

The Arab League called Wednesday for "urgent measures"  to protect Syrian civilians in the face of violent repression by the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. But lest anyone take that as an echo of the  call that legitimized the NATO-led military operation in Libya, the League's statement also rejected  "all foreign intervention" in Syria. Still, signs are growing that Syria's escalating power struggle is more likely to be be settled  by outside forces than by the Syrians themselves.

Through more than nine months of escalating repression that has killed as many as 3,500 people, the regime has not been able to suppress the uprising. Weekly protests continue; the scale of regime assaults on the city of Homs suggests it remains an opposition stronghold; and a dramatic series of overnight attacks Wednesday by soldiers who've crossed over to the insurgent Free Syrian Army -- including a brazen guerrilla assault on a Syrian intelligence base on the edge of Damascus -- suggested that civil war is already a reality.

But if the regime is unable to crush the uprising, the opposition still appears to lack the power to topple the regime. The core of Assad's military remains intact, and willing to carry out the regime's plan to shoot its way out of the crisis. In the major cities, much of the Sunni urban middle class has remained on the sidelines, while Assad maintains a substantial support base primarily among Syria's Allawite and Christian minorities, many of whom accept the regime's portrayal of the opposition as a sectarian Sunni lynch mob.

To the extent that Assad's repression has pushed the opposition towards an increasingly militarized response, that actually reinforces the regime's narrative that Syria is in the throes of a sectarian civil war, with Assad casting himself as the protector of Allawites and Christians. On that basis, the regime also appears to have divided the region, with Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen -- countries with significant Shi'ite populations, and in the case of Iraq, substantial Iranian influence -- having declined  to back the original Arab League suspension of Syria. Also, many key leaders of Christian communities in other Arab countries appear to have come out in support of Assad.

Assad can also count on solid backing from Russia, for whom Assad's Syria is a key geostrategic asset because it provides the Russian navy's only Mediterranean port, and also from Iran, for which Syria has been the key Arab ally.

But other regional players are raising their pressure on Damascus. The Arab League, with Turkey in attendance, on Wednesday gave Syria three (more) days to act on a deal it claimed  to have accepted two weeks ago -- but ignored  on the ground -- to halt repression,  withdraw its army from restive towns, and accept Arab monitors. The League suspended Syria's membership, and  sanctions should Damascus fail to comply. Al Jazeera's Rula Amin reported that last-minute diplomacy by Russia and Iran averted harsher and more immediate measures by the League.

Turkey had a more menacing message ahead of the summit, with officials warning that Syria would "pay a heavy price" for continue killing of its "oppressed people", and threatening to cut off electrical supplies following an attack on its embassy in Damascus by a pro-Assad mob. Officials in Ankara have begun to speak openly about creating a "buffer zone" inside Syria where it could protect refugees from the crackdown without having to admit them to Turkish territory. That, of course, would mean sending Turkish troops into Syria, and might presage a territorial breakup of Syria into rebel- and regime-controlled areas. But Turkey is waiting for international authorization to take such a step. "It seems out of the question for us to do that on our own," said an adviser to President Abdullah Gul.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who once counted Assad as a personal friend, is now sending a message that the Syrian leader can't be trusted. "No one any longer expects [Assad's regime] to meet the expectations of the people and of the international community," he said Tuesday. "Our wish is that the Assad regime, which is now on a knife edge, does not enter this road of no return, which leads to the edge of the abyss."

By virtue of its large, well-armed and -organized military (the second largest in NATO), its long border with Syria, its extensive trade relations with Syria and its popularity among Arab peoples who have cast off their dictators, Turkey may have more leverage than all others with skin in the game.

But Ankara is using its leverage cautiously. The truth is that Syria buys very little electricity from Turkey, and until now, Turkey hasn't halted most of the $2.5 billion a year in trade between the two countries. Perhaps the most dramatic Turkish shot across Assad's bows has been Ankara's hosting, not only of the opposition Syrian National Council, but also of the leadership of the insurgent Free Syrian Army. But at the same time, it has imposed limits on FSA activities on its soil.   "Turkey has never offered us even one bullet and has even completely banned operations on the border, or on the road to the border," the FSA's Turkey-based commander Ryad al-Asa'ad  told the BBC. "On the other hand, we are from inside Syria, we work inside Syria and the weapons are from Syria."

Turkey's increasingly apocalyptic language nonetheless leaves open the possibility that Assad might turn back from the abyss -- clearly Ankara's preferred option.

To the extent that the positions of outside players determine Syria's outcome, it becomes yet another  theater of an increasingly complex regional power game.  The Arab monarchies have been rallied by the Saudis to mount an aggressive counter-revolutionary campaign, sensing U.S. paralysis in the face of the region-wide democratic rebellion. Riyadh has viewed events in the region through the prism of their (anti-Shi'ite) sectarian outlook and strategic rivalry with Iran, orchestrating the repression of the democratic protest movement in Shi'ite-majority Bahrain. But Assad is an Iranian ally, his regime dominated by the crypto-Shi'ite Allawite sect lording it over the Sunni majority. So the Arab counter-revolutionaries find themselves moving to the side of Syria's Sunni revolutionaries, although a Muslim Brotherhood victory there wouldn't necessarily be Riyadh's optimal outcome.

The U.S. and other Western powers have long loathed the Assad regime over its interventions in Lebanon, its support for Hamas and enabling of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. But they have also worked with it -- Syria fought alongside the U.S. in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, and Syrian intelligence played an important role in hunting al-Qaeda after 9/11. They also fear that the regime's collapse  could have a potentially catastrophic impact on neighboring countries whose own sectarian power balances connect with Syria's own. That's why Western powers have remained cautious, preferring to see Assad undertake reforms than be overthrown. U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford  has repeatedly warned the opposition to refrain from taking up arms, which he says would play into the regime's hands -- and that NATO would not ride to the rescue.

But the U.S. no longer calls the shots in the region, even among those traditionally in its camp. The Saudis are doing their own thing, Qatar is flexing muscles nobody knew it had, and then there's Turkey, whose break with the U.S. on Iran and on Israel had many hawks in Washington proclaiming that Ankara had gone over to the dark side of their binary Mideast equation. But nothing is that simple: While Turkey has challenged U.S. policies it deems destructive and dysfunctional -- from the invasion of Iraq to its efforts to isolate Iran -- and has confronted Israel over its treatment of the Palestinians, all of those positions reflect  majority public sentiment throughout the Middle East. But America and Israel's loss was not Iran's gain: In the same week Turkey expelled Israel's ambassador, it also agreed to house a NATO radar system deployed to counter Iran's missile threat. And Iran was horrified to see the ascendant Islamists of Egypt and Tunisia embrace the moderate, secular Turkish example as their political model rather than Iran's theocratic extremism. Syria was the last straw, however, with Tehran making it clear it deemed action against Assad a "red line".  But horrified by the repression in Syria and outraged by promises broken by Assad, Turkey simply ignored Tehran's objections and began piling on pressure.

Despite their common interest in tackling Assad, many of those Arab regimes don't  like the idea of Turkish influence spreading much more than they like the idea of Iranian influence spreading -- except that in this instance, Iran concurs! Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu this week rejected domestic criticism that Turkey's pressure on Assad was "subcontracting" for the U.S. Turkey's foreign policy was based on principle, he said. Sometimes "it might be in harmony with the United States; sometimes with Iran, sometimes with Russia, sometimes with the EU." Turkey would not be deterred from a position simply because it was in accord with Washington's -- but as it has demonstrated over the past three years, nor will it abide by U.S. positions with which it differs.

Turkey has been more successful than most other international players in making the transition from being on cordial terms with Arab autocrats to acting in support of those trying to overthrow them. And with the Islamists emerging as the dominant political force in the emerging Arab democracies, Turkey's example has further boosted its soft-power influence.  But should Syria maintain its current course, it could become a hard-power challenge to Turkey, and others, obliging them to adopt an end-game that could resolve the crisis without setting the region ablaze. At least on that score, they're all in agreement.

Syria-Iran-Turkey: New war scenarios in the Middle East

While there were good connections and relations between Syria and Turkey only a year ago, today we began to talk different scenarios about the NATO intervention led by Turkey against Syria.

worldbulletin, 24.11.2011

Most commentators suggest that Syria came to the end of the road... Interestingly, old-friend Turkey is among the states which raise their loud voices against the Syrian Assad regime. "Our wish is that the Assad regime, which is now on a knife-edge, does not enter this road of no return, which leads to the edge of the abyss," Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said. "No regime can survive by killing or jailing. No one can build a future over the blood of the oppressed."

While there were good connections and relations between Syria and Turkey only a year ago, today we began to talk different scenarios about the NATO intervention led by Turkey against Syria.

Although the Turkish position is being portrayed as a defender of oppressed Syrian people in the world media, there are some questions which cannot be answered independently of war scenarios led by the U.S. against Iran.

Today, we will try to look at the roots of Turkey's position on events in Syria and its connection with the plans of global actors on the Middle East and new war scenarios in the region.

Looking at the Syrian Case from Different Viewpoints...

In this analysis, we do not talk about the oppressions of Assad regime. It is true that Bashar Al-Assad is a dictator and oppressor president and also unhesitatingly, Syrian people need to live in better conditions. Additionally, it is not possible to approve any pressure and oppression against the Syrian people. All things which are said in this issue are true...

But, we want to look at the big-not small- picture of the Syrian case in the light of new plans on Middle East... As Michel Chossudovsky, from Global Research, says, "While the Syrian regime is by no means democratic, the objective of the US-NATO Israel military alliance is not to promote democracy. Quite the opposite, Washington's intent is to eventually install a puppet regime."

In "Winning Modern Wars" General Wesley Clark states the following:

"As I went back through the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan."

After we read these sentences, it is required for us to think again about all the Middle Eastern developments and events. The Syrian case is not exception...

According to Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, from Global Research, "Damascus has been under pressure to capitulate to the edicts of Washington and the European Union. This has been part of a longstanding project. Regime change or voluntary subordination by the Syrian regime are the goals. This includes subordinating Syrian foreign policy and de-linking Syrian from its strategic alliance with Iran and its membership within the Resistance Bloc."

"War preparations to attack Syria and Iran have been in 'an advanced state of readiness' for several years." says Michel Chossudovsky. "The July 2006 bombing of Lebanon was part of a carefully planned 'military road map'. The extension of 'The July War' on Lebanon into Syria had been contemplated by US and Israeli military planners. It was abandoned upon the defeat of Israeli ground forces by Hezbollah."

On the other hand, according to Chossudovsky, "the road to Tehran goes through Damascus. A US-NATO sponsored war on Iran would involve, as a first step, a destabilization campaign ('regime change') including covert intelligence operations in support of rebel forces directed against the Syrian government." And Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya supports Chossudovsky's argument in a detailed manner:

"The events in Syria are also tied to Iran, the longstanding strategic ally of Damascus. It is not by chance that Senator Lieberman was demanding publicly that the Obama Administration and NATO attack Syria and Iran like Libya. It is also not coincidental that Iran was included in the sanctions against Syria. The hands of the Syrian military and government have now been tied internally as a new and broader offensive is being prepared that will target both Syria and Iran."

In addition to them, Stephen Lendman's approach is very helpful in order to understand the real picture in the Middle East:

"Israel wants regional rivals removed. Washington and key NATO partners want independent regimes ousted, replaced with subservient ones.

At issue is establishing regional dominance. New targets can then confronted politically, economically, and/or belligerently.

Fabricated IAEA Iranian documents escalated tensions. Rhetorical saber rattling followed. Stiffer sanctions are threatened and perhaps war.

Syria's been targeted for months. Libya's insurgency was replicated. Street battles rage daily. Violence engulfs the country. Assad's government is unfairly blamed. Washington's dirty hands are at fault. So are Israel's and other conspiratorial allies."

According to former UK official Alastair Crooke, there is a "great game" in the issue of Syria and Iran. "Regime change in Syria is a strategic prize that outstrips Libya - which is why Saudi Arabia and the west are playing their part." he said. "(S)et up a hurried transitional council as sole representative of the Syrian people, irrespective of (its legitimacy); feed in armed insurgents from neighboring states; impose sanctions that will hurt the middle classes; mount a media campaign to denigrate any Syrian efforts at reform; try to instigate divisions within the army and the elite; and ultimately President Assad will fall - so its initiators insist."

Moreover, "suppose this was a Hollywood script conference and you have to pitch your story idea in 10 words or less. It's a movie about Syria. As much as the currently in-research Kathryn Hurt LockerBigelow film about the Osama bin Laden raid was pitched as 'good guys take out Osama in Pakistan', the Syrian epic could be branded 'Sunnis and Shi'ites battle for Arab republic'." says Pepe Escobar. "Yes, once again this is all about that fiction, the "Shi'ite crescent", about isolating Iran and about Sunni prejudice against Shi'ites."

Last developments/events in Syria and the Turkish viewpoint...

"Washington and the E.U. have pushed Turkey to be more active in the Arab World. This has blossomed through Ankara's neo-Ottomanism policy. This is why Turkey has been posturing itself as a champion of Palestine and launched an Arabic-language channel like Iran and Russia." says Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. "Ankara, however, has been playing an ominous role. Turkey is a partner in the NATO war on Libya. The position of the Turkish government has become clear with its betrayal of Tripoli. Ankara has also been working with Qatar to corner the Syrian regime. The Turkish government has been pressuring Damascus to change its policies to please Washington and appears to possibly even have a role in the protests inside Syria with the Al-Sauds, the Hariri minority camp in Lebanon, and Qatar. Turkey is even hosting opposition meetings and providing them support."

Again, as Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya emphasizes, "The violence in Syria has been supported from the outside with a view of taking advantage of the internal tensions and the anger in Syria. Aside from the violent reaction of the Syrian Army, media lies have been used and bogus footage has been aired. Weapons, funds, and various forms of support have all been funnelled to elements of the Syrian opposition by the U.S., the E.U., the March 14 Alliance, Jordan, and the Khalijis. Funding has been provided to ominous and unpopular foreign-based opposition figures, while weapons caches were smuggled from Jordan and Lebanon into Syria."

We, gradually, have seen the changing position of Turkey on Syria. Today, many Syrian opponents are organized in Turkey. Even, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad claimed that Ankara helped establish the opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) and Free Syrian Army (FSA). SNC recognition accompanied Syria's suspension.

On the other hand, as Tony Karon says, "The current Turkish government sees itself as a bridge between the West and the Arab world, and even between the West and Iran. And it is also as a supporter of Arab democracy and the principle that conflicts must be resolved by political solutions that reflect the popular will. In Libya, despite its longstanding relationships with Colonel Gaddafi, it has pressed for a democratic political solution, remaining actively engaged with and support of the Benghazi-based opposition at the same time as maintaining its good offices with the regime. It has done the same with Syria, urging the regime to make democratic reforms, and criticizing the use of force against demonstrators -- and allow Syrian opposition groups to use Istanbul as a base from which to try and organize themselves."

While Robert W. Meryy encourages Turkey for its role in the Middle East by saying that "Turkey should be encouraged to develop its role as Islamic interlocutor, perhaps even as something of a core state for Islam. It can help guide the Middle East through its current travails and struggles far better than the United States can. That's because we live in the era of the Clash of Civilizations."; Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya criticizes Turkey's new role in the region:

"Turkey is viewed in Washington and Brussels as the key to bringing the Iranians and the Arabs into line. The Turkish government has been parading itself as a member of the Resistance Bloc with the endorsement of Iran and Syria. U.S strategists project that it will be Turkey which domesticates Iran and Syria for Washington. Turkey also serves as a means of integrating the Arab and Iranian economies with the economy of the European Union. In this regard Ankara has been pushing for a free-trade zone in Southwest Asia and getting the Iranians and Syrians to open up their economies to it.

In reality, the Turkish government has not only been deepening its economic ties with Tehran and Damascus, but has also been working to eclipse Iranian influence. Ankara has tried to wedge itself between Iran and Syria and to challenge Iranian influence in Iraq, Lebanon, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Turkey also tried to establish a triple entente between itself, Syria, and Qatar to push Syria away from Tehran. This is why Turkey has been very active vocally against Israel, but in reality has maintained its alliance and military deals with Tel Aviv. Inside Turkey itself, however, there is also an internal struggle for power that could one day ignite into a civil war with multiple players.

.....

This project to manipulate and redefine Islam and Muslims seeks to subordinate Islam to capitalist interests through a new wave of political Islamists, such as the JDP/AKP. A new strand of Islam is being fashioned through what has come to be called 'Calvinist Islam' or a 'Muslim version of the Protestant work ethic.' It is this model that is being nurtured in Turkey and now being presented to Egypt and the Arabs by Washington and Brussels.

This 'Calvinist Islam' also has no problem with the 'reba' or interest system, which is prohibited under Islam. It is this system that is used to enslave individuals and societies with the chains of debt to global capitalism."

Today, Libya's model targets Syria. According to Israel's Mossad-linked DEBKAfile, NATO and Turkey plan intervening in Syria by enlisting and arming thousands of insurgent forces. Saudi Arabia, Lebanon's Hariri March 8 alliance, Jordan and Israel are involved. Washington's in charge orchestrating events.

On the other hand, Michel Chossudovsky claimed that "Turkey is a member of NATO with a powerful military force. Moreover, Israel and Turkey have a longstanding joint military-intelligence agreement, which is explicitly directed against Syria.

...A 1993 Memorandum of Understanding led to the creation of (Israeli-Turkish) 'joint committees' to handle so-called regional threats. Under the terms of the Memorandum, Turkey and Israel agreed 'to cooperate in gathering intelligence on Syria, Iran, and Iraq and to meet regularly to share assessments pertaining to terrorism and these countries' military capabilities.'

Turkey agreed to allow IDF and Israeli security forces to gather electronic intelligence on Syria and Iran from Turkey. In exchange, Israel assisted in the equipping and training of Turkish forces in anti-terror warfare along the Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian borders."

As supportive information of this argument, as Tony Karon says, "some analysts suggest there's already a tacit agreement among U.S. and Saudis that Turkey will take the lead in shaping any international response to the Syria crisis. The Israeli media has suggested that some in Washington see the breakdown between Turkey and Iran over Syria as an opportunity to draw Ankara back into the U.S.-Israeli camp on dealing with Iran."

Moreover, "There is increased talk of military pressure to come through arming members of the opposition to the Syrian regime -- should it persist in its obstinacy and bloody repression -- could lead to rebellion and a split within the Syrian army." says Raghida Dergham. "While NATO will not engage in airstrikes against the regime in Damascus -- on par with its operations in Libya -- the alliance may provide financial support and armaments to the dissidents through Turkey in support of ground operations, not air strikes, should the regime continue with its military approach. The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) may also follow suit. Last week, the GCC countries said they were running out of patience with the Syrian regime and began a wider effort in close collaboration with Turkey. This has made Iran increasingly concerned, perhaps even irate as well -- something which everyone is now closely observing to see how it shall be translated on the ground in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq as well."

Iran-Turkey rivalry in the Middle East and the Syrian case...

"With the 'Arab Spring', Iran started to see Turkey as the major obstacle/rival before its regional policy." says Assoc. Prof Mehmet Sahin. "The main reason of the fact that Iran is uncomfortable with Turkey is Turkey's increasing influence on the region. It should not be overlooked that Iran came first among the countries following the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visits to Egypt, Tunisia, Libya within the scope of the 'Arab Spring' tour. As long as Turkey is effective in the region, Iran draws away from the region. "

As a parallel comment, Tony Karon said that "And even while Turkey has distanced itself from the U.S. strategy of isolating and pressuring Iran over its nuclear program, Tehran and Ankara are also rivals for influence in the wider Middle East."

We can see this rivalry between Turkey and Iran in the Syrian case again. In the comment of Turkey's Hurriyet Daily News, it is said that "It is no secret that Turkey and Iran have a different approach toward the Arab Spring and especially on its effects on Syria. After Iraq and Afghanistan, Syria has become another regional issue where Ankara and Tehran follow diverging policies."

On the other hand, according to Tony Karon, "Turkey and Iran are Syria's key foreign allies, but they have very different relationships with Damascus -- Tehran's being a long-established strategic alliance, while Ankara's is based on having lately emerged as the key source of trade and investment critical to Syria's prospects -- and very different ideas on how the Assad regime should deal with the political crisis."

Today, we know that Iran feels discomfort Turkey's hurtful policies on the Middle East. Whilst Iran was satisfied from Turkey, what has changed? According to the Economist, "Turkey's mollycoddling of the mullahs has angered America, most recently when Mr Erdogan's government voted against imposing further sanctions on Iran at the United Nations last year. Turkey has since sought to make amends. It has agreed to NATO plans for a nuclear-defence missile shield that is clearly aimed at Iran. And after some dithering, it is co-operating with the alliance's military operations in Libya."

Because of this reality, Iran warns Turkey regularly. Assoc. Prof. Mehmet Sahin categorizes Iranian authorities' criticism for us:

"According to the Iranian authorities;

1- Turkey wants to give an explicit message to Iran and Russian Federation by letting the deployment of NATO's missile shield with early warning radar system on her territories.

2- The fact that Turkey suggests countries such as; Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya a new regime model, based on a 'secular system', is an unexpected and unbearable situation, as the people in the region are Muslim.

3- Turkey which is under the pressure of the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia, has been making its third strategic mistake by trying to liven up the protest demonstrations in Syria.

As the Iranian authorities made these statements above, they could not also stop accusing Turkey. In this context, they claim that Turkey follows its foreign policy 'in accordance with the directives of the U.S., as well as in order to protect the interests of the U.S. and to protect Israel.' They suggest that the main objective of the Missile Shield Project is to protect Israel. At the same time, the Iranian authorities, who made statements, underline that Turkey will face new problems in the region, particularly in terms of the commercial affairs with Iran, if she maintains her current foreign policy."

Iran-Syria Relations and the possibility of regional war...

"And what do Iran's 'Revolutionary Guards' think of Syria? They believe that Assad's government constitutes an exception." says Wahied Wahdat-Hagh. "They claim that whilst almost all Arab governments have been touched by the change afoot in the Arab world, with most of these falling due to their 'pro-Western' policies, Syria is 'an exception.' Syria is counted amongst the 'ranks of resistance,' they say."

On the other hand, when Amir Taheri focuses on the details of Iran-Syria relations, he gives place to these sentences in his article:

"Iran, however, stands dead set against the scheme. Over the last decade, Syria has become more of a client state than an ally.

Iran has kept Syria's moribund economy alive with frequent cash injection and investments thought to be worth $20 billion, and also gives Syria 'gifts,' including weapons worth $150 million a year. Tehran sources even claim that key members of Assad's entourage are on the Iranian payroll.

During Bashar's presidency, the Iranian presence has grown massively. Iran has opened 14 cultural offices across Syria, largely to propagate its brand of Shiite Islam. Iran's Revolutionary Guard also runs a 'coordination office' in Damascus staffed by 400 military experts, and Syria is the only Mediterranean nation to offer the Iranian navy mooring rights.

The two countries have signed a pact committing them to 'mutual defense.' Syria and North Korea are the only two countries with which Iran holds annual conferences of chiefs of staff."

Moreover, "Under a mutual defense pact signed between Syria and Iran in 2005, Syria agreed to allow the deployment of Iranian weapons on its territory. On June 15, 2006, Syria's defense minister, Hassan Turkmani, signed an agreement with his Iranian counterpart for military cooperation against what they called the 'common threats' presented by Israel and the United States. 'Our cooperation is based on a strategic pact and unity against common threats,' said Turkmani. 'We can have a common front against Israel's threats.'" says Mitchell Bard. He also looks at the strategic importance of Syria for Iran in his article:

"Syria harbors in Damascus representatives of ten Palestinian terrorist organizations including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine(DFLP), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine all of which are opposed to advances in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. These groups have launched terrible attacks against innocent Israeli citizens, which have resulted in hundreds of deaths. Syria also supports the Iranian-funded Hezbollah.

For more than 30 years, Lebanon was essentially controlled by Syria. With Syrian acquiescence, Lebanon became the home to a number of the most radical and violent Islamic organizations. Hezbollah (Party of God), in particular, has been used by the Syrians as a proxy to fight Israel."

Today, we began to talk about the elimination of these two allies. Although some observers only focuses on the Syria, many of them indicate "regional war". In this regional war, Iran will be main target. According to Austin Bay, the civil war has now expanded into a twilight regional war between Iran and NATO, with Turkey as NATO's frontline actor.

As a parallel comment, "The involvement of Iran, Turkey, Saudia Arabia, and other gulf states has turned the Syrian uprising from an internal event - resulting from mass poverty, oppression, and a lack of economic and political future - into a potential regional war." says Zvi Bar'el. "Syria, whose regional strategic importance is based less on oil and natural resources, and more on its strong relationship with Iran and ability to intervene in Iraqi affairs, has been able to prevent the establishment of a military front against it. As opposed to the immediate international consensus that allowed for a military offensive in Libya, there has been no initiative to promote a similar UN Security Council in regards to Syria."

On the other hand, "All the ingredients for a conformation led by the U.S. against Iran exist." says Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. "Iranophobia is being spread by the U.S., the E.U., Israel, and the Khaliji monarchies. Hamas has been entangled into the mechanisms of a unity government by the unelected Mahmoud Abbas, which would mean that Hamas would have to be acquiescent to Israeli and U.S. demands on the Palestinian Authority. Syria has its hands full with domestic instability. Lebanon lacks a functioning government and Hezbollah is increasingly being encircled."

Today, we are hearing some allegations in order to aim Iran at the target. Necessarily, we are thinking that while Syria is second target, the main target is Iran in the Middle East?

Wayne Madsen's comments approve our argument: "Israel's strategy is to make certain that its plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and, perhaps other targets, meet no opposition from diplomatic circles in the United States... Israel has placed its own interests well beyond and in contravention of those of the United States."

He also mentions a polarization between regional powers as a component part of this puzzle:

"Countries in Asia are scrambling to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as full members. Confronted by a belligerent United States, NATO, and Israel intent on toppling the governments of Syria and Iran, the economic, cultural, and de facto collective security pact that comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan announced after its prime ministers' summit in St. Petersburg that SCO would soon be opening its doors for full membership for Pakistan, Iran, and India. The Asian nations want to freeze the United States out of interference in Asia."

Moreover, "The structure of military alliances respectively on the US-NATO and Syria-Iran-SCO sides, not to mention the military involvement of Israel, the complex relationship between Syria and Lebanon, the pressures exerted by Turkey on Syria's northern border, point indelibly to a dangerous process of escalation." says Michel Chossudovsky. "Any form of US-NATO sponsored military intervention directed against Syria would destabilize the entire region, potentially leading to escalation over a vast geographical area, extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border with Tajikistan and China."

If we attach the excuses against Iran to this polarization process, it can be more easily to read this picture...

According to Wayne Madsen, "Israel, using its agents of influence in the UN delegations of the United States, Britain, Germany, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands, has ensured that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano has tainted his agency's report on Iranian nuclear developments in a manner that would have never been tolerated by his predecessor, Mohammed ElBaradei. Amano certainly took no interest in the fact that his own nation, Japan, was secretly producing nuclear weapons at the Fukushima nuclear complex in contravention of IAEA rules. The aftermath of the destructive earthquake in Japan laid open the secret work going on at Fukushima. Amano is perfectly willing to act as a cipher for Israel and the Israel Lobby in 'discovering' IAEA violations by Iran."

On the other hand, giving an ear to Pepe Escobar about the producing fabrication causes in order to aim Iran at the target can be very helpful:

"It's Christmas in October - as the United States government has just handed it the perfect gift; in the excited words of US Attorney General Eric Holder, 'A deadly plot directed by factions of the Iranian government to assassinate a foreign ambassador on US soil with explosives.'

....

The plot is very handy to divert attention from Saudi Arabia as the beneficiary of a multi-billionaire US weapons sale. And also very handy to divert attention from Holder himself - caught in yet another monstrous scandal, on whether he told lies regarding Operation Fast and Furious (no, you can't make this stuff up), a federal gun sting through which no less than 1,400 high-powered US weapons ended up, untracked, in the hands of - you guessed it - Mexican drug cartels. Seems like the Fast and the Furiousfranchise is the entertainment weapon of choice across all levels of the US government.

Washington wants to 'unite the world' against Iran ('world' meaning the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO) and is graphically threatening to take Iran to the United Nations Security Council - all over again.

So let's anxiously wait for a hushed R2P ('responsibility to protect') resolution ordering NATO to establish a no-fly zone over every House of Saud prince across the world. A resolution which would be interpreted as a NATO mandate to bomb Iran into regime change. Now that's a script you can believe in. "

How will Turkey have position in the event of any NATO intervention?

In recent days, Turkey sends severe messages to Syria. Do this mean that Turkey preferred to be on America and NATO's side in this polarization war in the region?

The Turkish government said it was suspending joint oil exploration and considering stopping electricity supplies to its neighbor. What does it mean for Turkey's position?

As Tony Karon says, "Turkey fears Syria being turned into another sectarian quagmire on the same lines as Iraq, but it's not following the line of its BRIC allies -- Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa -- at the U.N."

"Turkey's new approach to Syria also has the potential to create tension with Iran in the medium term." says Nihat Ali Ozcan. "A possible shift of power will end the role of Syria as the 'strategic ally' of Iran; which will in turn assign a partial responsibility for such an outcome to Turkey."

Additionally, Kaveh L Afrasiabi warns Turkey about is policies against Iran and Russia: "As Turkey's principal energy partners, Russia and Iran provide roughly 70% of Turkey's energy imports, yet both Tehran and Moscow are about to send Ankara the chills of negative reactions if Turkey goes ahead with its threat of sanctions on Syria.

Already, Turkey's embrace of the bid by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to station an anti-missile radar on its territory has angered both Russia and Iran."

And he adds: "Turkey is bound to lose a great deal of its appeal as conflict mediator in the region if it continues to alienate neighbors like Iran and Syria by pursuit of regime change in Damascus. This is in light of its willingness to host Syrian opposition groups which are now setting up shop in Turkey for a Libya-style transitional government, thus overlooking the major differences between Libya and Syria."

In contrast to Nihat Ali Ozcan and Kaveh L Afrasiabi's comments, Barçın Yinanç looks at the issue from a some different perspective. "While the AKP has burned most of the bridges with the Bashar al-Assad regime, it seems that its stance on Iran has not yet been affected." she said. "News about a possible Israeli attack on Iran, triggered by the U.N. nuclear watchdog's report due to be released this week, will turn eyes to Turkey, whose policies in the recent past have been in favor of Iran when it came to efforts to increase international pressure on Tehran.

Now that the regional rivalry between Turkey and Iran has intensified, will Turkey change its stance on Iran? Will it make Turkey happy to see that international pressure intensifying on the country, prompting fresh sanctions? Is a military strike on Iran the worst option as far as Turkey's interests are concerned?

....

It looks like Turkey is not going to deviate from this stance, even if Iran's role in the Arab Spring increasingly conflicts with Turkey's interests. Or at least one can say that Iranian actions have not come to such a point of damaging Turkish interests that they would prompt Ankara to change its stance on the nuclear issue. After all, Turkish-Iranian history has been about avoiding open hostilities despite intense regional rivalry behind the scenes.

....

The realignment of Turkey's policies with those of the Western bloc during the Arab Spring must have eased Western concerns that Turkey has been leaning too much in favor of Iran. Yet, does Davutoglu believe he still has the trust of the Iranians and does he believe he still has influence over Iran due to his personal relations? Will he again consider the conditions appropriate enough to step in? This remains to be seen."

Conclusion...

As Robert Dreyfuss emphasizes that "The New York Times carries a piece titled: 'U.S. Tactics in Libya May Be a Model for Other Efforts.' By model, of course, they mean the mobilization of lethal force, including coordinated bombing attacks and precision missile strikes, tied closely to rebel military tactics, jointly run by the United States and NATO. In it, President Obama's advisers—including Ben Rhodes, the humanitarian interventionist hawk who supported the U.S. war in Libya—suggest that the Libyan action might easily be applied elsewhere. 'How much we translate to Syria remains to be seen,' says one adviser, anonymously. And the Times notes:

'The very fact that the administration has joined with the same allies that it banded with on Libya to call for Mr. Assad to go and to impose penalties on his regime could take the United States one step closer to applying the Libya model toward Syria.'"

And he concludes his article so: "It's fair to say that Syria and Iran are far more difficult cases than Libya, a empty desert nation whose civil conflict was likely not to spread. By contrast, war in Syria could affect Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, and war in Iran could have incalculable consequences from Pakistan and Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf. Still, you can already imagine the drumbeat from neocons and liberal interventionists that the United States cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred."

After looking at this big picture, it seems that the Syrian case is connection with broader agendas. Here, it is required for Turkey to think its position on Syria again and again...

Although Turkey claims that it will not be pawn for the regional war, its actions and comments say a different thing.

Today, the U.S., the West, and the NATO nor deal with the future of Syrian people neither desire more democratic systems in the Middle East. Their only aim is to guarantee their oppression systems. If, today, Bashar Al-Assad says that O.K., I will abandon Iran, I will block Iran's passing weapons to Hezbollah and Palestinian groups, and also I want to cooperate with the U.S. and the West in the region after that; we will see that all these disinformation and manipulation processes will, gradually, be abandoned in the world media and psychological war against to Syria will end. In the event of any changing in policies of Syria, both the U.S. and the West will keep their mouth shut about Assad's oppressions to his people...

So, Turkey backs the wrong horse again... What a shame!

US scenario in Syria: Turkish incursion, Israeli invasion

Press Tv, 05.02.2012

Informed sources have uncovered a US plot entailing a Turkish incursion and a full-scale Israeli strike to overthrow the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

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Entscheidungsschlacht
In Syrien kämpfen Iran und die Türkei um die Macht

Welt Online, von KM-Mitglied Boris Kalnoky , 08.02.2012

Während der Iran das Assad-Regime mit Waffen versorgt, gilt die Türkei als größter Drahtzieher hinter dem syrischen Aufstand. Wer wird die dominante Macht im Nahen Osten?

Der regierungsnahe syrische Radiosender Shams FM strahlte am Vormittag eine bemerkenswerte Nachricht aus. Syrien und die Türkei, so hieß es da, verhandelten heimlich über die Freilassung von 49 türkischen Geheimdienstoffizieren, die auf syrischem Gebiet gefasst worden seien, wo sie Rebellen der "Freien syrischen Armee“ (FSA) unterstützt hätten.

Der Sender berichtete, Damaskus fordere als Bedingung die Einstellung aller Infiltrationen durch türkische Sicherheitskräfte, einen Stopp der Ausbildung syrischer Rebellen durch die Türkei, und die Aushändigung syrischer Rebellenführer, die von türkischem Gebiet aus den Aufstand in Syrien leiteten. [...]

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http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13857555/In-Syrien-kaempfen-Iran-und-die-Tuerkei-um-die-Macht.html

da dieser boris kalnoky kurdmania mitglied ist, gehe ich mal von aus, der artikel beruht auf zuverlässige quellen. das würde aber wieder nur verdeutlichen, wie gefährlich es für die kurden wäre, die rebellen und den auftsand zu unterstützen. kein wunder, dass die pyd fordert an den demonstraionen nicht teilzunehmen. am ende haben wir noch eine türkeifreundliche regierung im nacken. das wäre für kurdistan noch weit schlimmer als ein assad.

ich sagte es doch, besser die araber kümmern sich selbst um ihre probleme. wenn syrien ein vasall der türken wird, dann bekommen die krg und die pkk noch schlimmere probleme, als sie ohnehin schon haben. die einzige forderung der kurden in syrien kann nur ein referendum um eine atonomie oder einen staat sein, alles andere geht in die hose und ich hoffe die kurden werden sich nicht mehr so kopflos an den demonstrationen beteiligen, bis ihnen ihre rechte zugesichert werden.

Boris Kalnoky ist zwar seit Jahren als User bei Kurdmania registriert, jedoch wohl seit mindestens 3 Jahren nicht mehr aktiv.
Er ist Auslandskorredpondent des Springer-Konzerns mit Sitz in Ankara bzw. Istanbul und schreibt genauso seriös wie die übrigen Medien dieses Konzerns. Ihm eine besondere Zuneigung zur kurdischen Freiheitsbewegung zu unterstellen, ist wohl nicht gerade angebracht.

ändert tut sich trotzdem nicht viel. die übergangsregierung wird so oder so ein vasall der türkei, daher sollten die kurden sich da besser raus halten. je schlechter es den arabern geht und je länger dort bürgerkrieg herrscht, umso besser geht es den kurden. das hört sich böse an, aber diese regel haben die kurden nicht eingeführt. unsere feinde haben sich so entschieden, sollen sie damit leben. wenn sie doch nur demokratisch und minderheitenfreundlich wären, dann würde ich mir frieden für sie wünschen, aber wenn sie wieder an stärke gewinnen, dann machen sie wieder jagd auf kurden. sollen sie also zusehen wie sie alleine zurecht kommen, es sei denn sie gestehen uns mindestens eine autonomie zu.